Z51 Home

Two Centuries of Infectious Disease Mortality

Crude death rates per 100,000 population for five major infectious diseases over approximately 200 years — compiled from government vital statistics registries, CDC/NCHS records, WHO databases, and peer-reviewed epidemiological literature. Updated through 2026. No blogs, no social media.

~205
Years Covered
5
Pathogens
2
Regions
16+
Cited Sources
Active resurgence: U.S. measles — 1,814 confirmed cases through April 30, 2026 (24 outbreaks; 93% unvaccinated/unknown). Pertussis: 43,321 U.S. cases in 2024, highest since 2012. TB rising in both U.S. and England.
Region / Data Set
Y-Axis Scale
Show / Hide Diseases
England & Wales · Deaths per 100,000 Population
Logarithmic scale: each major gridline represents a 10× change — this best reveals the dramatic long-run declines.
England & Wales: Civil registration of deaths began July 1837 (effective 1838). Values before 1838 are scholarly estimates extrapolated from Bills of Mortality and parish records. Typhus and typhoid fever were not formally distinguished in records until 1869; pre-1869 "typhus" figures include some typhoid mortality. Cholera was epidemic rather than endemic — spikes reflect pandemic years (1831–32, 1848–49, 1853–54, 1866). 2021–2025 values: annual CDC/NCHS and ONS/UKHSA data. E&W whooping cough death rate 2024 (0.039/100k) reflects 22 confirmed pertussis deaths in England per UKHSA. Sources: UK Registrar General Annual Reports · ONS · UKHSA 2024–2025.
Modern Surveillance Era: Case Counts (2000–2026)

The historical mortality chart captures deaths per 100,000 — the dominant 19th–20th century metric. For the modern era, case counts tell the more meaningful story: deaths from measles and pertussis are now near-zero thanks to vaccines, but case resurgences signal vaccine coverage gaps with real public health consequences. Data below sourced directly from CDC NNDSS, CDC measles surveillance, and UKHSA.

U.S. Measles Cases — Annual (2000–2026*)
U.S. Pertussis Cases — Annual (2000–2025)
U.S. Tuberculosis — Incidence Rate per 100,000 (2000–2025)
U.S. Measles Case Demographics — CDC Surveillance (confirmed cases)
Metric 2024 (final) 2025 (full year, prelim.) 2026 (thru Apr 30, prelim.)
Total confirmed cases2852,2881,814
Outbreaks (≥3 linked cases)164824 (ongoing)
Outbreak-associated cases69%90%93%
Jurisdictions reporting324537
Age distribution
  Under 5 years42% (120)26% (584)21% (388)
  5–19 years31% (88)44% (1,016)51% (928)
  20+ years27% (77)30% (675)27% (492)
Vaccination status
  Unvaccinated or unknown89%93%92%
  One MMR dose7%3%4%
  Two MMR doses4%4%4%
Hospitalizations
  Overall hospitalized40% (114)11% (243)6% (105)
  Under 5 hospitalized52% (62/120)18% (106/584)9% (35/388)
  5–19 hospitalized25% (22/88)6% (58/1,016)3% (29/928)
  20+ hospitalized39% (30/77)12% (79/675)8% (40/492)
Deaths30
MMR kindergarten coverage93.1% (2023–24 SY)92.5% (2024–25 SY)~92.5% est.
Pertussis (Whooping Cough) — U.S. & England Case Counts
Year U.S. Cases (NNDSS) England Cases (UKHSA) England Deaths Status
20206,124~200~0COVID suppression
20212,116~100~0Pandemic low
20223,044~550~1Recovering
20237,063856~2Finalized / increasing
202443,32114,89422Surge — highest since 2012 (US)
202528,783est. 3,500–4,000est. 5–8Provisional — declining from 2024 peak
2026PendingPendingSurveillance ongoing
Tuberculosis — U.S. Incidence Rate & England Notifications
Year U.S. Cases U.S. Rate (per 100k) England Cases England Rate (per 100k) Note
20207,1702.2COVID-19 disruption
20217,8662.4Recovery begins
20228,3352.5Finalized
20239,6262.94,8508.5Above pre-COVID level
202410,3883.15,4809.54th consecutive yr increase (US)
202510,2603.0Provisional; slight decrease

*2026 measles case count (1,814) is confirmed cases through April 30, 2026. Pertussis and TB 2026 data not yet available. England pertussis 2024 deaths: 11 infant deaths + 11 deaths age ≥1 year (UKHSA Annual Report 2024). MMR coverage: CDC VaxView survey of U.S. kindergarteners. TB rates: CDC NCHS / UKHSA DTBE. Sources: CDC measles surveillance (May 1, 2026 update) · CDC NNDSS pertussis data · CDC TB Surveillance Report 2024 · UKHSA Pertussis Annual Report 2024 · UKHSA TB in England 2025 Report.

Key Historical Milestones
Disease Context & Drivers of Decline
Data Sources & Bibliography
UK Registrar General Annual Reports (1838–present)
Government civil registration of deaths by cause, England & Wales. Now published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Foundational source for all 19th–20th century E&W disease mortality data.
CDC / NCHS — Historical Vital Statistics (1900–present)
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. "Vital Statistics of the United States," annual volumes. Death rates and case counts by cause. cdc.gov/nchs
McKeown, T. & Record, R.G. (1962)
"Reasons for the Decline of Mortality in England and Wales during the Nineteenth Century." Population Studies, 16(2), 94–122. Foundational analysis of TB and infectious disease decline.
McKinlay, J.B. & McKinlay, S.M. (1977)
"The Questionable Contribution of Medical Measures to the Decline of Mortality in the United States in the Twentieth Century." Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 55(3), 405–428.
Szreter, S. (1988)
"The Importance of Social Intervention in Britain's Mortality Decline c.1850–1914." Social History of Medicine, 1(1), 1–37.
Mercer, A.J. (1990)
Disease, Mortality and Population in Transition. Leicester University Press. Comprehensive historical epidemiology of England & Wales.
Hardy, A. (1993)
The Epidemic Streets: Infectious Disease and the Rise of Preventive Medicine, 1856–1900. Oxford University Press.
Cutler, D. & Miller, G. (2005)
"The Role of Public Health Improvements in Health Advances: The Twentieth-Century United States." Demography, 42(1), 1–22.
WHO Global Health Observatory (1950–present)
Mortality and health statistics including TB, measles, and cholera. who.int/data/gho
IHME Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Cause-specific mortality estimates with uncertainty intervals, 1990–2019. healthdata.org
CDC Pink Book, 14th Ed. (2021)
Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases. cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook
Ackerknecht, E.H. (1965)
History and Geography of the Most Important Diseases. Hafner. Historical context for cholera pandemics and typhus.
CDC — Measles Cases and Outbreaks (updated May 1, 2026)
Confirmed U.S. measles case counts 2000–2026 including demographics (age, vaccination status, hospitalizations, deaths) and outbreak tallies. cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
CDC — Pertussis Surveillance and Trends (updated Apr. 28, 2026)
NNDSS reported case counts 1922–2025; incidence by age group 1990–2025; provisional 2024–2025 data. cdc.gov/pertussis/php/surveillance/index.html
CDC — TB Incidence and Mortality: 1953–2024 (Dec. 19, 2025)
Annual TB cases, incidence rates, deaths, and mortality rates per 100,000 U.S. population, 1953–2024. 2025 provisional data: 10,260 cases, rate 3.0/100k. cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/data/incidence-mortality.html
UKHSA — Laboratory Confirmed Pertussis in England: Annual Report 2024 (GOV.UK)
14,894 confirmed cases in England; 11 infant deaths; 11 additional deaths age ≥1 year; maternal vaccine effectiveness ~91%. gov.uk/government/publications/pertussis-laboratory-confirmed-cases-reported-in-england-2024
UKHSA — Tuberculosis in England 2025 Report (GOV.UK)
5,480 TB notifications in England in 2024 (rate 9.5/100k), 13% increase over 2023. Trend reversal confirmed — rates now above pre-COVID levels. gov.uk/government/publications/tuberculosis-in-england-2025-report

⚠ Historical mortality values (main chart) are crude death rates per 100,000 total population. Pre-1838 (E&W) and pre-1900 (US) data involve scholarly estimation. Decade-level data points are used for 1820–2010; annual data used from 2011 onward. Modern case counts (resurgence section) are reported confirmed cases, not death rates. Logarithmic scale is recommended to visualize the full historical range. U.S. TB death rate for 2020 reflects CDC NCHS figure of 600 deaths (331M pop), revised from earlier decade estimate.